Rank Choice Voting
At our Democratic Presidential debate watch events, we are experimenting with Rank Choice voting. At each of our events, we have given out ballots with all the candidates participating in the debate and asked folks to rank their top 5 candidates in order. Some chose to rank fewer, some more, but all ballots were counted. For the first round, the #1 rank votes were tallied for each candidate. If no candidate had more than half the votes, the candidate with the least #1 rank votes was taken out of the race. All ballots were then retallied, except votes corresponding to ballots that had the removed candidate as a top pick were 'transferred' to the next highest ranked candidate on that ballot. This process was repeated until a candidate has more than half the votes.
We decided to collect rank choice ballots at our Debate Watch events for the interesting polling results shown here and to promote rank choice voting in all our elections. As you can see, espesially in the first debates, rank choice voting provides an extra dimention to the data as each round refines the result. You get a better sense of voter preferences than just the first choice result. FairVote.org has additional information about this, but the bottom line is that rank choice voting does a better job of capturing voter preferences without the extra expense and time of holding multiple elections. It also reduces the 'spoiler effect' by allowing supporting and voting for candidates without worrying whether that candidate will win. For example, suppose you really like the Green or Libertarian candidate, but are hesitant to vote for them because you know they won't win and you don't want to 'waste' your vote. But you would like to support them so that maybe next time they might have a better chance. Rank choice voting allows you safely show strong support for your prefered candidate, knowing that your #2 or #3 choice is much more likely to win this time. Rank choice voting also promotes a more civil campaign since candidates will be less likely to trash your #1 choice if they want your #2 or #3 vote.
The tables below are similar to those used by the City and County of San Francisco. Their web site has some very nice Rank Choice explainations, especially this practice page that lets you explore the details of tallying a rank choice ballot.
These tables, though, use red/green background colors to highlight votes being trasfered before the next round. All the ballots which had the previous round's loser as their top choice, will have their votes transfered to their next choice. So the red marks the subtraction of votes from the loser, and the green marks how those votes are going to be redistributed for the next round. Note that the sum of values in each Xfers column is zero. Also note that sometimes there is no next choice on a ballot so that that ballot becomes exhausted and is assigned to the Exhausted row near the bottom. When this happens, the number of Continuing Ballots is reduced so that the sum of Continuting Ballots and Non Transferable ballots is always the overall number of ballots. The number of Continuing Ballots ballots is used to compute the percentages that determine when the winner is identified. When this percentage exceeds 50%, the winner's value is highlighted in yellow. There is one other case where a ballot becomes Non Transferable. This is when a ballot's top choice is indeterminate because the same rank was assigned to mulitple candidates. In this case the ballot is accounted for in the Overvotes tally. The sum of Exhausted and Overvotes is the Non Transferable Total.
June 27 Results
Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3 | Round 4 | Round 5 | Round 6 | Round 7 | |||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Votes | PCent | Xfers | Votes | PCent | Xfers | Votes | PCent | Xfers | Votes | PCent | Xfers | Votes | PCent | Xfers | Votes | PCent | Xfers | Votes | PCent | Xfers |
Elizabeth Warren | 11 | 25.6 | 11 | 25.6 | 11 | 25.6 | 11 | 25.6 | 2 | 13 | 31.0 | 3 | 16 | 39.0 | 8 | 24 | 63.2 | ||||
Bernie Sanders | 13 | 30.2 | 13 | 30.2 | 13 | 30.2 | 13 | 30.2 | 13 | 31.0 | 1 | 14 | 34.1 | 14 | 36.8 | ||||||
Kamala Harris | 7 | 16.3 | 1 | 8 | 18.6 | 8 | 18.6 | 8 | 18.6 | 1 | 9 | 21.4 | 2 | 11 | 26.8 | -11 | 0 | ||||
Pete Buttigieg | 5 | 11.6 | 5 | 11.6 | 1 | 6 | 14.0 | 1 | 7 | 16.3 | 7 | 16.7 | -7 | 0 | 0 | ||||||
Joe Biden | 4 | 9.3 | 4 | 9.3 | 4 | 9.3 | 4 | 9.3 | -4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
Amy Klobuchar | 1 | 2.3 | 1 | 2.3 | 1 | 2.3 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||
Cory Booker | 1 | 2.3 | 1 | 2.3 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||
Tulsi Gabbard | 1 | 2.3 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||
Andrew Yang | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Beto O'Rourke | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Bill de Blasio | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Eric Swalwell | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Jay Inslee | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
John Delaney | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
John Hickenlooper | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Julian Castro | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Kirsten Gillibrand | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Marianne Williamson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Michael Bennet | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Tim Ryan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Continuing Ballots Total | 43 | 43 | 43 | 43 | 42 | 41 | 38 | ||||||||||||||
Exhausted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | |||||||||||
Overvotes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||||
Non Transferable Total | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
With 43 ballots, Bernie got the most first place votes in Pass 1. But his 13 votes were not more than half. In subsequent rounds, candidates were eliminated and votes were transferred to the next choice, until after round 5, Elizabeth and Bernie are tied with 13 votes each. Then by Pass 7, Elizabeth had sprinted ahead to a 24-14 lead over Bernie. Since 24 is more than half of the 38 remaining non-exhausted ballots, she is the winner of our poll. It was interesting how nearly all of the Kamala and Pete ballots transferred to Elizabeth.
July 31 Results
Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3 | Round 4 | Round 5 | Round 6 | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Votes | PCent | Xfers | Votes | PCent | Xfers | Votes | PCent | Xfers | Votes | PCent | Xfers | Votes | PCent | Xfers | Votes | PCent | Xfers |
Elizabeth Warren | 5 | 26.3 | 5 | 26.3 | 1 | 6 | 31.6 | 1 | 7 | 38.9 | 2 | 9 | 50.0 | 9 | 60.0 | |||
Bernie Sanders | 4 | 21.1 | 4 | 21.1 | 4 | 21.1 | 1 | 5 | 27.8 | 1 | 6 | 33.3 | 6 | 40.0 | ||||
Amy Klobuchar | 3 | 15.8 | 3 | 15.8 | 3 | 15.8 | 3 | 16.7 | 3 | 16.7 | -3 | 0 | ||||||
Tulsi Gabbard | 3 | 15.8 | 3 | 15.8 | 3 | 15.8 | 3 | 16.7 | -3 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
Jay Inslee | 2 | 10.5 | 1 | 3 | 15.8 | 3 | 15.8 | -3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
Joe Biden | 1 | 5.3 | 1 | 5.3 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
Kirsten Gillibrand | 1 | 5.3 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||
Andrew Yang | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||
Beto O'Rourke | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||
Bill de Blasio | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||
Cory Booker | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||
John Delaney | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||
John Hickenlooper | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||
Julian Castro | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||
Kamala Harris | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||
Marianne Williamson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||
Michael Bennet | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||
Pete Buttigieg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||
Steve Bullock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||
Tim Ryan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||
Continuing Ballots Total | 19 | 19 | 19 | 18 | 18 | 15 | ||||||||||||
Exhausted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | ||||||||||
Overvotes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||
Non Transferable Total | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
We had 19 ballots turned in and after 6 rounds it was Elizabeth over Bernie 60%/40%. This is a similar result as last time with 43 ballots. What was dramatically different were the 3rd and 4th places. Kamala and Pete dropped out and were replaced by Tulsi and Amy. And Joe was dropped after the first round.
September 12 Results
Round 1 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Votes | PCent | Xfers |
Elizabeth Warren | 26 | 60.5 | |
Bernie Sanders | 8 | 18.6 | |
Cory Booker | 5 | 11.6 | |
Pete Buttigieg | 3 | 7.0 | |
Andrew Yang | 1 | 2.3 | |
Amy Klobuchar | 0 | ||
Beto O'Rourke | 0 | ||
Joe Biden | 0 | ||
Julian Castro | 0 | ||
Kamala Harris | 0 | ||
Continuing Ballots Total | 43 | ||
Exhausted | 0 | ||
Overvotes | 0 | ||
Non Transferable Total | 0 |
Elizabeth swamped the first round vote with 26 of 43 votes. Bernie had 8. About 20 ballots indicated that they came in as Elizabeth fans and they all put her first. 7 had Bernie 1st coming in.
October 15 Results
Round 1 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Votes | PCent | Xfers |
Elizabeth Warren | 18 | 58.1 | |
Bernie Sanders | 5 | 16.1 | |
Joe Biden | 3 | 9.7 | |
Tulsi Gabbard | 3 | 9.7 | |
Amy Klobuchar | 1 | 3.2 | |
Tom Steyer | 1 | 3.2 | |
Andrew Yang | 0 | ||
Beto O'Rourke | 0 | ||
Cory Booker | 0 | ||
Julian Castro | 0 | ||
Kamala Harris | 0 | ||
Pete Buttigieg | 0 | ||
Continuing Ballots Total | 31 | ||
Exhausted | 0 | ||
Overvotes | 0 | ||
Non Transferable Total | 0 |
Elizabeth again swamped the first round vote with 18 of 31 votes. Bernie had 5. About 8 ballots indicated that they came in as Elizabeth fans and they all put her first. 6 had Bernie 1st coming in and one of these switched to Elizbeth. 1 person came in as a Tulsi fan and picked her as their #1.
November 20 Results
Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3 | Round 4 | Round 5 | Round 6 | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Votes | PCent | Xfers | Votes | PCent | Xfers | Votes | PCent | Xfers | Votes | PCent | Xfers | Votes | PCent | Xfers | Votes | PCent | Xfers |
Elizabeth Warren | 14 | 35.0 | 14 | 35.0 | 1 | 15 | 37.5 | 2 | 17 | 42.5 | 1 | 18 | 47.4 | 4 | 22 | 57.9 | ||
Bernie Sanders | 9 | 22.5 | 9 | 22.5 | 9 | 22.5 | 9 | 22.5 | 9 | 23.7 | 9 | 23.7 | ||||||
Tulsi Gabbard | 5 | 12.5 | 1 | 6 | 15.0 | 6 | 15.0 | 6 | 15.0 | 6 | 15.8 | 1 | 7 | 18.4 | ||||
Pete Buttigieg | 4 | 10.0 | 4 | 10.0 | 4 | 10.0 | 1 | 5 | 12.5 | 5 | 13.2 | -5 | 0 | |||||
Andrew Yang | 3 | 7.5 | 3 | 7.5 | 3 | 7.5 | 3 | 7.5 | -3 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
Amy Klobuchar | 2 | 5.0 | 2 | 5.0 | 1 | 3 | 7.5 | -3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
Kamala Harris | 2 | 5.0 | 2 | 5.0 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
Tom Steyer | 1 | 2.5 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||
Cory Booker | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||
Joe Biden | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||
Continuing Ballots Total | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 38 | 38 | ||||||||||||
Exhausted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |||||||||||
Overvotes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||
Non Transferable Total | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
We collected 40 ballots after the debate. On the 1st round, Elizabeth was ranked 1st on 14, Bernie 9, Tulsi 5, Pete 4, Andrew 3, Kamala 2, Amy 2 and Tom 1. Over the next 5 rounds, Tom, Amy, Kamala, Andrew and Pete were eliminated and votes for them were transfered. Elizabeth finally won with 22 votes of the remaining 38, non-exhausted, ballots in Round 6. Three ballots indicated an after-debate #1 vote different from the preference before the debate. A ballot with Elizabeth as a coming-in preference had Amy as #1, a Joe preference went to Bernie and another Joe preference went to Pete. It's seems Joe had a bad night.'
December 19 Results
Round 1 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Votes | PCent | Xfers |
Andrew Yang | 22 | 51.2 | |
Bernie Sanders | 12 | 27.9 | |
Amy Klobuchar | 2 | 4.7 | |
Elizabeth Warren | 2 | 4.7 | |
Joe Biden | 2 | 4.7 | |
Tom Steyer | 2 | 4.7 | |
Pete Buttigieg | 1 | 2.3 | |
Continuing Ballots Total | 43 | ||
Exhausted | 1 | ||
Overvotes | 1 | ||
Non Transferable Total | 2 |
We collected 45 ballots after the debate. One was left empty which gets removed as exhaused and one had both Andrew and Bernie as #1 which gets removed as an overvote. On the 1st round, Andrew was ranked 1st on 22 and wins with 51% of 43 ballots, while Bernie had 12 #1 votes. Elizabeth, Amy, Joe and Tom each had 2 while Pete had 1. Three ballots indicated an after-debate #1 vote different from the preference before the debate. Two Elizabeth fans switched, one to Bernie and one to Joe. One Andrew fan switched to Tom. It's seems Elizabeth had a bad night.'
January 14 Results
Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3 | Round 4 | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Votes | PCent | Xfers | Votes | PCent | Xfers | Votes | PCent | Xfers | Votes | PCent | Xfers |
Elizabeth Warren | 9 | 24.3 | 2 | 11 | 30.6 | 3 | 14 | 38.9 | 5 | 19 | 52.8 | |
Bernie Sanders | 15 | 40.5 | 15 | 41.7 | 15 | 41.7 | 2 | 17 | 47.2 | |||
Pete Buttigieg | 5 | 13.5 | 1 | 6 | 16.7 | 1 | 7 | 19.4 | -7 | 0 | ||
Amy Klobuchar | 4 | 10.8 | 4 | 11.1 | -4 | 0 | 0 | |||||
Joe Biden | 4 | 10.8 | -4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||
Tom Steyer | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||
Continuing Ballots Total | 37 | 36 | 36 | 36 | ||||||||
Exhausted | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
Overvotes | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||
Non Transferable Total | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
We collected 38 ballots after the debate. One had multiple candidates with the same ranks and was removed as overvoted. On the 1st round, Bernie was ranked 1st on the most ballots but did not have enough (40.5%) to win. Over the next 3 rounds, Elizabeth's votes grew from 24.3% to 52.8% to beat Bernie. 13 of Bernies initial 15 votes were from people who came in with Bernie as their favorite. 8 of Elizabeth's 9 initial votes came from Elizabeth fans. Only one ballot indicated a comming in favorite (EW) that they did not have as their #1. It is possible, though, that the ranks were inverted on this ballot since Elizabeth was ranked #5 on it.'
February 7 Results
Round 1 | Round 2 | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Votes | PCent | Xfers | Votes | PCent | Xfers |
Bernie Sanders | 18 | 50.0 | 1 | 19 | 52.8 | |
Andrew Yang | 10 | 27.8 | 10 | 27.8 | ||
Elizabeth Warren | 6 | 16.7 | 6 | 16.7 | ||
Amy Klobuchar | 1 | 2.8 | 1 | 2.8 | ||
Pete Buttigieg | 1 | 2.8 | -1 | 0 | ||
Joe Biden | 0 | 0 | ||||
Tom Steyer | 0 | 0 | ||||
Continuing Ballots Total | 36 | 36 | ||||
Exhausted | 0 | 0 | ||||
Overvotes | 0 | 0 | ||||
Non Transferable Total | 0 | 0 |
We collected 36 ballots after the debate. On the 1st round, Bernie was ranked 1st on exactly half the ballots, Andrew had 27.8% and Elizabeth had 16.7%. Amy and Pete each had 1 vote. On the next round, Benie picked up 1 more vote from the Pete ballot to win. No one indicated that they changed their mind during the debate.
February 19 Results
Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3 | Round 4 | Round 5 | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Votes | PCent | Xfers | Votes | PCent | Xfers | Votes | PCent | Xfers | Votes | PCent | Xfers | Votes | PCent | Xfers |
Elizabeth Warren | 21 | 37.5 | 21 | 37.5 | 1 | 22 | 39.3 | 1 | 23 | 41.1 | 5 | 28 | 50.9 | ||
Bernie Sanders | 19 | 33.9 | 19 | 33.9 | 1 | 20 | 35.7 | 4 | 24 | 42.9 | 3 | 27 | 49.1 | ||
Amy Klobuchar | 8 | 14.3 | 8 | 14.3 | 8 | 14.3 | 1 | 9 | 16.1 | -9 | 0 | ||||
Michael Bloomberg | 4 | 7.1 | 1 | 5 | 8.9 | 1 | 6 | 10.7 | -6 | 0 | 0 | ||||
Joe Biden | 3 | 5.4 | 3 | 5.4 | -3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
Pete Buttigieg | 1 | 1.8 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||
Continuing Ballots Total | 56 | 56 | 56 | 56 | 55 | ||||||||||
Exhausted | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |||||||||
Overvotes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||
Non Transferable Total | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
We collected 58 ballots after the debate. Elizabeth was ahead on the first 3 rounds, but Bernie pulled ahead on the 4th by one vote. But still not more than 50%, In the 5th round Elizabeth edged out Bernie by one vote to win. Elizabeth clearly had a good night. Two ballots with Bernie at #1, had notations crediting her for winning the debate. Unfortunately, these two ballots turned out to have been cast by the same person who later fessed up. Amy came in 3rd with 9 votes by round 4. 4th place goes to Michael who made it to the 3rd round with 6 votes before being eliminated. 5th place goes to Joe and Pete came in last. Only 2 ballots had their #1 choice different from their preference before the debate. Interestingly one was Pete changing to Michael and the other was Michael changing to Pete. Two ballots were immediately labeled exhausted in round 1 since one was the over enthusiastic Bernie supporter duplicate and the other had no ranks except a notation for Andrew Yang.
February 25 Results
Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3 | Round 4 | Round 5 | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Votes | PCent | Xfers | Votes | PCent | Xfers | Votes | PCent | Xfers | Votes | PCent | Xfers | Votes | PCent | Xfers |
Bernie Sanders | 19 | 38.0 | 1 | 20 | 40.0 | 20 | 40.0 | 2 | 22 | 44.0 | 3 | 25 | 52.1 | ||
Elizabeth Warren | 18 | 36.0 | 18 | 36.0 | 18 | 36.0 | 1 | 19 | 38.0 | 4 | 23 | 47.9 | |||
Amy Klobuchar | 7 | 14.0 | 7 | 14.0 | 2 | 9 | 18.0 | 9 | 18.0 | -9 | 0 | ||||
Pete Buttigieg | 3 | 6.0 | 3 | 6.0 | 3 | 6.0 | -3 | 0 | 0 | ||||||
Joe Biden | 2 | 4.0 | 2 | 4.0 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
Tom Steyer | 1 | 2.0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||
Michael Bloomberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||
Continuing Ballots Total | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 48 | ||||||||||
Exhausted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |||||||||
Overvotes | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||
Non Transferable Total | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
We collected 50 ballots after the debate. Elizabeth and Bernie were very close for 4 rounds. In round 5, with all other candidates eliminated, and 2 ballots exhausted, Bernie's two vote lead was enough to win. One ballot showed someone switching from Bernie to Amy as their #1 and another ballot with Amy as #1 expressed support coming in for Kamala Harris.